Timeline of the Next 80 Years

  • Published on: 08 February 2020
  • What does the future hold for humanity and our changing climate in the 21st century? Using projections from the IPCC Fifth Report and the climate science literature, we've put together a timelapse showing what may lie ahead. On the left hand side of the screen you'll see an "optimistic" view, where although we continue to emit carbon dioxide at significant levels, investments in clean energy and mitigation try to curb the damage. On the right hand side, you'll see a future where humanity emits as much as we please and very little mitigation takes place.

    The data presented in this video are a projection of the 21st century. We used two of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), presented in the IPCC Fifth Report, as plausible scenarios - although these are not strictly forecasts. Seasonal variations were added using a stochastic generator conditioned upon observed seasonal variability reported by NASA GISS. Similarly, seasonal variability in carbon dioxide levels were simulated based on historical seasonal variations about a moving average predicted using the RCP models. Special thanks to Gavin Schmidt for advice during the course of this video production.

    And sorry for the typo at the very end! *It’s!!!

    Resources:
    ► Big thanks to the huge team who helped put together the IPCC Fifth Report from which much of the projections in this video come from: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/index.shtml
    ► Temperature spirals were inspired by Ed Hawkins: https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/spirals/
    ► NASA GISS global mean temperature record used to generate seasonal variations: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/
    ► Visualizations of the Earth under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 by Alex Kekesi, NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio and NASA Center for Climate Simulation: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4110
    ► Carbon dioxide historical data comes from Mauna Loa: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html
    ► Represenative Concentration Pathays (RCP) Emission scenarios: http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome
    ► Also recommend reading the SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/data/allscen.xls
    ► Knutti & Sedláček (2013), "Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections", Nature Clim Change, 3, 369 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1716#Sec3
    ► Overland & Wang (2013), "When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?", Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 2097: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/grl.50316
    ► Huang, Yu, Guan, Wang & Guo (2016), "Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change", Nature Clim Change, 6, 166: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2837
    ► Annunzioa, Sandkera, Finegold & Min (2015), "Projecting global forest area towards 2030", Forest Ecology & Management, 352, 124: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112715001346#f0015
    ► Biodiversity projections from GloBio, Convention on Biological Diversity: https://www.globio.info/assessments-with-globio/global-regional-assessments/136-biodiversity-scenarios-projections-of-21st-century-change-in-biodiversity-and-associated-ecosystem-services
    ► Westerling (2018), "Wildfire Simulations for California's Fourth Climate Change Assesment in Extreme Wildfire Events with a Warming Climate", Special Report for California's Fourth Climate Change Assesment: https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-07/Projections_CCCA4-CEC-2018-014.pdf

    ► Intro music is Cylinder Four (http://chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/) by Chris Zabriskie (http://chriszabriskie.com/); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
    ► Background music is a cover of "Isolated System", originally by Muse, performed by Nick Caville: https://soundcloud.com/nick-caville/isolated-system-piano

    And also...
    ► Columbia University Department of Astronomy: http://www.astro.columbia.edu
    ► Cool Worlds Lab website: http://coolworlds.astro.columbia.edu

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    THANKS FOR WATCHING!!

    #ClimateActionNow
  • Runtime : 5:21
  • Climate Timeline Timeline of the Future Future Predictions Future of the Earth Earth in the future Climate Change Predictions RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 Global Warming Predictions Timeline of Climate Change Future Timeline for Climate Change Earth Climate Change Prediction Earth in the Future with Climate Change Earth in 2100 Future 2100

COMMENTS: 40

  • Hunter Dunker
    Hunter Dunker   4 days ago

    This is good news the human race will suffer. This happens when you don't listen. We don't care about or home or planet we never did!this planet is doomed because of us.we did this .anyone who read this message blame your self for what's happening today,

  • Jon Connor
    Jon Connor   4 days ago

    Why doesn't anyone in authority on the left say anything about China & India releasing WAAAAYY more CO2\greenhouse\smoke pollution(China has 3.5× more people but spews 10-12× more CO2,same with India so it's NOT just because they have more people)into the atmosphere compared to the 🇺🇸...

  • mwm48
    mwm48   4 days ago

    We’re boned

  • Robbie Khan
    Robbie Khan   5 days ago

    The right showing The Right exactly as they are in reality right now. Mind boggling isn't it? They just don't care about the future as they won't be alive then :/

  • Hubert Williamson
    Hubert Williamson   5 days ago

    None of your past prediction have come true. Why should we listen to you now?

  • James Mills
    James Mills   1 weeks ago

    Ah, the delusion of shifting baselines. 1950-1980? or before 1880?"Pre-industrial" is supposed to mean prior to the beginning of the industrial revolution which was 1750. Governments, scientists and economists keep shifting the baseline to make it appear that we're not already over 1.5 C globally. We already are, as in right now; if you look at the correctly adjusted figures and plot along the 1750 baseline path.Every time you hear/read a report talking about insert tipping point that we are on the verge of crossing; we've already crossed it years or decades ago.Edit: Just know, that what we've discovered in recent years is things are happening faster than expected on an exponential curve. This stuff isn't decades away, try merely years, something scary to know, the worse case scenario presented in the video is actually very conservative to the actual timescale and severity the new data is showing.

  • Kyleigh Hope
    Kyleigh Hope   3 weeks ago

    fuck this brought tears to my eyeshow is this the world i am to inherit? will we see a generation after the iGeneration? what the fuck is Gen Z supposed to do, especially when no one takes us seriously?

  • Pallavi Sharma
    Pallavi Sharma   3 weeks ago

    Vote out the stupid ass right wing politicians around the world

  • HerReaper D
    HerReaper D   3 weeks ago

    Gotta remember also our Sun ☀️ is getting older , bigger and hotter.

  • Shaawen E. Thunderbird

    Native American here. You're a bit too generous with the wildfires. Its already pretty bad.

  • Joseph Mercel
    Joseph Mercel   1 months ago

    After 2020 (+1.28° Celsius average on Northern Hemisphere land and ocean) it started to be even worse than these scenarios.

  • Rob Evers
    Rob Evers   1 months ago

    We only have to find a way to convince the people who don't believe in global warming. Looking at the comments here it's preaching for like minded public. They (we) don't need to be convinced. Although I'm fully aware about the consequences of global warming, it's still shocking to see it in this way. We really need to be more creative in the way to get through to the 'non-believers' although I'm sorry to say I don't have the solution as to how either (so far). It looks like so many people don't trust science (anymore?).

  • IronVolf41
    IronVolf41   1 months ago

    Greed will not save anyone, only the use of appropriate technology in space can save us.

  • TheRealTrump
    TheRealTrump   1 months ago

    Honestly just a load of political BS.....Vote democrat and climate change will magically stop! Wake up call..... we are already fucked and the damage is done. Even if we hit zero admissions tomorrow it will still take 100,00's of years to repair. In the meantime we will continue to get hotter regardless. BTW how do you think windmills and solar panels are made? and batteries to run those electric cars. xD Unless we come up with new technologies that can be implemented world wide to reverse the effects, sorry to say, the world is already screwed. Enjoy the inevitable doom and don't forget your sunscreen as we slide into hell sideways, fast and hard.

  • Edwin Johnson
    Edwin Johnson   1 months ago

    Kinda insane that the kids born today will live to see 2100 at the end of their average lifespan while I will have to make it to 96 years old in order to see it. Although I don’t know if the world would be in a good spot.

  • surferjoe 5150
    surferjoe 5150   2 months ago

    We have nothing to worry about if you have faith because he's coming back to stop it all

  • Jonathan Gibson
    Jonathan Gibson   2 months ago

    We are already within a handful of years until Arctic Blue Ocean Event with famine not far behind it, not this 2049 ‘worst-case’ cosplay.

  • Philip Allsopp
    Philip Allsopp   3 months ago

    A picture of rationality on the left and rabid addiction on the right; addiction to the extraction of short term profits no matter the costs “sawing off the limb on which we are sitting”

  • Mantrika Shukla
    Mantrika Shukla   3 months ago

    I’m absolutely terrified. I wish everyone could be shown this video. We have to make the right decision

  • Johnny Ionica
    Johnny Ionica   3 months ago

    George Carlin said it best. The planet will be fine, we are going to be f***ed. If self preservation doesn't motivate us, maybe we don't deserve to be around. Evolve or Perish. Fundamental law of evolution.

  • Cotif11
    Cotif11   4 months ago

    "All natural and technological processes proceed in such a way that the availability of the remaining energy decreases, in all energy exchanges if no energy enters or leaves an isolated system, the entropy of that system increases. Energy continuously flows from being concentrated, to becoming dispersed, spread out: wasted and useless. New energy cannot be created, and high grade energy is being destroyed, an economy based on endless growth is unsustainable. The fundamental laws of thermodynamics will placed fixed limits on technological innovation and human advancement, in an isolated system, the entropy can only increase. A species set on endless growth is unsustainable."

  • Richard Russell
    Richard Russell   4 months ago

    You must love Jehovah your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength. You must love your neighbor as yourself. Jesus the anointed is Lord! Repent and be baptized and believe the Gospel.

  • lady Bug
    lady Bug   4 months ago

    When did the acceptable warming become 3 degrees instead of 2?

  • David Tringham
    David Tringham   4 months ago

    Couldn’t be doing with two things to watch at one time, headfuck!

  • Rajat Kumar
    Rajat Kumar   4 months ago

    30 percent of carbon emission is coming from meat eating 👍🙏🏾.and I am sure about that Poor's were going to suffer and rich people are sitting in their ac rooms posting about climate change how we can overcome from these situations 🙏🏾.this is the future

  • stoneybridger
    stoneybridger   4 months ago

    It's March the 3rd 2021, i'm 46, i've known about climate change for?? 30 years??From the year 2000 to now....that's 20 years, what is going on? in the UK for the last 20 years what is happening?

  • A B
    A B   6 months ago

    We need Chrisjen Avasarala to take the wheel on this.

  • sara fox
    sara fox   6 months ago

    The CCP in china needs to be removed. If china can democratize and give their people free speech and the right to vote, we will have a chance at making this world better.If they keep on trying take over democracies and spread viruses the future will be worse.

  • Richard Schaeffer
    Richard Schaeffer   6 months ago

    Not taking into account of solar forcing (electromagnetic/thermal influence) as well as sea ice melt, stalling the oceanic currents which causes ice ages... This is a nice video.

  • annie
    annie   6 months ago

    Much scarier than it was a year ago.

  • Pinot
    Pinot   6 months ago

    If you made the music a little more dramatic, it might catch on... I am quite disappointed by this video. I really liked your rational, neutral approach. Also, I think you are really letting the combined intelligence and innovativeness of humanity down and ignore selection pressure.

  • milivoee
    milivoee   6 months ago

    Aren't we coming out of the Little Ice Age since somewhere in the beginning of the 19th century, and it is suppose to be warmer anyway? How much of it is that, and how much is the carbon emission? Seing how mush scientists knew about viruses this last year, I somehow doubt their projections. And temperature depends on much more factors. But then again, they knew how to precisely calculate very complicated courses for The Voyagers years ago, with all the slingshots, and different variations in orbits of all the different planets on its couse, over very long periods of time. So, they might be right. Just how much right are they, is the question.

  • Raphael L
    Raphael L   6 months ago

    Please correct me if I am wrong here - but is it not a fact, that the water level of the oceans is rising with 10% of the speed, with which the big citys at the coasts all over the world are sinking in the ground? Because they are build out of billions and billions of tons of steel and cement? And then gravitation does its work... right? Sorry for my bad english - Im not a native speaker.

  • Theo Wandermann
    Theo Wandermann   6 months ago

    This is completely unrealistic. Politician in 2065: "Time is running out". Really? Global food supply will collapse much, much sooner. After that it's mayhem. Emission of GHGs will never reach these levels, because civilization collapses much earlier. Our models project: less than 100 million humans on Earth by 2080.